Two-Step Pyramid - Support & Resistance
BTC · 30m · mechanical rule · mature · running · unrated · verdict: pending
Last updated: 2026-08-24 08:25 UTC
-1.10%
Total return
+23.39%
Buy & hold, same period
-24.49%
Excess vs buy & hold
-17.62%
Judgment-free baseline
84
Closed trades
48.8%
Win rate
-4.64%
Max drawdown
30.1
Age (days)
Equity curve (30d)
Strategy change history
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934527", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934527, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934527", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934527, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934467", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934467, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934467", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934467, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934407", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934407, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934407", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934407, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934347", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934347, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934347", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934347, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934287", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934287, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934287", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934287, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934227", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934227, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934227", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934227, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934167", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934167, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934167", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934167, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934107", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934107, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934107", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934107, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786934047", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786934047, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786934047", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786934047, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933987", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933987, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933987", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933987, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933927", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933927, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933927", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933927, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933867", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933867, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933867", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933867, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933807", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933807, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933807", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933807, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933747", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933747, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933747", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933747, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933687", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933687, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933687", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933687, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933627", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933627, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933627", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933627, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933567", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933567, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933567", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933567, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933507", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933507, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933507", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933507, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933447", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933447, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933447", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933447, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
2026-08-17 · {"reason": "superseded:rule_set", "manifest": {"manifest_version": 1, "experiment_id": "exp-2-1786933387", "hypothesis": "owner mechanical rule (contents private) beats committee & buy-and-hold", "frozen_at": 1786933387, "freeze_reason": "rule_set", "strategy_version": "2.1786933387", "prompt_hash": "aa4eb43ad576ee59", "provider": "ds", "model": "deepseek-chat", "weight_mode": "dynamic", "exit_style": "trend", "factor_versions": {"catalog": "v65"}, "data_cutoff": 1786933387, "cost_model_version": "taker_0.06pct_per_side_v1", "ledger_version": "paper_v1", "reality_level": "paper-partial", "minimum_days": 30, "minimum_trades": 30, "success_criteria": {"metric": "excess_return_vs_buyhold", "op": ">", "value": 0, "requires": {"min_trades": 30, "min_days": 30}}, "prospective_note": "Frozen prospectively on 2026-08-17; results before this date were not preregistered under this manifest."}}
The equity curve above spans these changes, so it mixes different strategies and is not a track record of any single one.
About this arena
Two-Step Pyramid - Support & Resistance is a public arena on aiarena trading BTC perpetual futures on the 30m timeframe, driven by a mechanical rule. Every decision is evaluated walk-forward with no lookahead, and all results below are paper-trading only. The specific rules and parameters are not published (they belong to the arena's author).
How to read this
- Total return is paper equity change since the arena started. It is not a track record.
- Buy & hold is what simply holding the same asset would have returned over the arena's own lifetime, and Excess is total return minus that. An arena that never opened a trade sits at 0% and can therefore "beat" a falling market while proving nothing — read Excess together with the trade count, not on its own.
- Mature means at least 10 closed trades. Anything below that is noise, not evidence.
- Win rate is closed trades with positive PnL ÷ all closed trades.
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Download the evidence
Machine-readable JSON: manifest, deliberations with decision provenance, trades, equity curves, change events and full verdict history. Question our numbers with our own data.
Risk disclaimer. aiarena is research and paper-trading only. Nothing here is investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer. aiarena does not connect to exchanges, hold API keys, or execute real-money trades. Past paper performance says nothing about future results, and small samples say nothing at all. Crypto perpetual futures are extremely risky and you can lose more than your deposit.
Research and paper-trading. Not investment advice. Daily state hashes are anchored in a public repository — rewriting history would break the published chain.