Hypothesis, metrics, thresholds and judgment date — frozen before results exist. Published whatever comes out. This page is the calendar.
| Experiment | Question | Registered | Verdict due | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereg #2 awaiting verdict |
Do 12 plain-English rule arenas beat one free-running committee arena on excess-over-buy-and-hold? | 2026-07-10 | 2026-08-21 | Maturity thresholds already met (7 mature rule arenas of 4 required; control 87/30 closed trades — verify on the scoreboard) |
| B7 running |
Donchian-20 breakout + EMA200 regime filter + SAR exit on 4h — survives forward paper after passing three kill-tests? | 2026-07-11 | 2026-10-11 | Paper-trading live; minimum 12 closed flips; one extension to 2026-12-11 allowed |
Why the asymmetry: B7's single-extension clause was written into its original registration; prereg #2 registered no extension clause, so none exists. Extension rights are set at registration time, never after.
None yet. The first registered verdict in this platform's history is due 2026-08-21. Whatever it says, it will be published on this page.
| Investigation | Claim tested | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| C0 funding factor archived 2026-07-31 |
Our only factor to survive strict holdout (recorded Sharpe ~0.7) reproduces under frozen criteria | Reproduction failed. Held-out Sharpe +0.18, CI straddles zero; original claim traced to an unsaved evaluation script. Library final score: 94 candidates → 1 survivor → 0. Forensic write-up forthcoming. |
| H3 invalidated |
A rule that won three consecutive tests | Invalidated after failing its pre-specified kill tests — write-up. |
| Intraday T (A-shares) closed |
Eight executable intraday directions on 6.5 years of 5-minute data | All gross-negative before costs. An ex-post oracle audit shows profitable paths existed — the gap is foresight-and-model, not cost. |
Exit-parameter change of 2026-07-23 (wider targets, tighter stops): payoff shape improvement confirmed
(0.75→1.61); net-P&L effect not proven — point estimate positive, CI straddles zero, needs
~855 paired samples. Disclosed here so it can't be quietly promoted to a "win" later.
Have a trading claim you want tested the way we test our own — frozen criteria, held-out data, published either way? Open a hypothesis issue — one sentence claim, market + timeframe, mechanical entry/exit in plain English, and the result that would convince you it's dead.
Honest terms: we read everything; we may pre-register the ones that are mechanizable and interesting. No promise, no timeline, no payment either way. If we run yours, the verdict publishes win or lose — same as ours.
Registered scripts are versioned and hashed. Daily state hashes are externally anchored to a public repository. Losing arenas stay on the scoreboard. Implementation deviations are append-only — including deviations that improved paper results.
No trade signals. No execution. Inspect the hypothesis, the evidence, and the verdict.